Solana’s Bull Run: Could SOL Surge Beyond $500 This Cycle?

NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com)— Solana (SOL) continues its impressive price recovery, aligning with broader crypto market gains. Bitcoin (BTC) trading above $105,000 has set the stage for altcoins like SOL, which climbed 9% in the last 24 hours and 35% over the past week, reaching $257.

Rising Network Activity Fuels SOL Momentum

The Solana blockchain has seen a sharp increase in network activity, a reflection of its growing adoption. Transaction volumes spiked, driven by the recent excitement surrounding Official TRUMP (TRUMP) and Official Melania Meme (MELANIA) tokens.

Solana’s deployed transactions chart. Source: Pump.Fun

Between Jan. 17 and Jan. 19, daily transactions jumped from 45,881 to record highs, underscoring Solana’s utility.

DeFi TVL surges past $12B in 2025. Source: DefiLlama

DeFiLlama data revealed that Solana’s total value locked (TVL) surged to $12 billion on Jan. 20. Although it slightly retraced to $11.8 billion by Jan. 22, the metric marked a 212% weekly increase, signaling heightened interest in Solana-based decentralized applications.

Anticipation of a Spot Solana ETF Boosts Optimism

Speculation over the potential approval of a spot Solana ETF has injected bullish sentiment into the market. Predictions from Polymarket show a 90% likelihood of ETF approval in 2025, stoking investor enthusiasm.

Solana ETF approval chances hit 90%. Source: Polymarket

Analysts at JPMorgan estimate such an ETF could attract $3 billion to $6 billion in capital inflows, potentially driving SOL’s price toward $500 or higher.

Solana, XRP ETFs face key deadlines. Source: Eric Balchunas

Applications from major asset managers, including Grayscale, VanEck, and 21Shares, await SEC decisions. Analysts like Eric Balchunas have highlighted REX Shares’ filing as particularly noteworthy, given its longstanding industry experience.

Technical Indicators Point to $500+ Target

SOL’s technical setup reinforces the bullish narrative. A confirmed bull flag breakout above $180 in Nov. 2024 sets a potential target near $580. Recent rebounds off this level emphasize its importance as a foundation for further gains.

Solana turned key levels into support. Source: Jelle on X

Crypto trader and analyst Jelle added weight to the bullish case, noting that “key levels turned into support,” which positions SOL for further upside. Jelle also warned of possible “violent moves” in the near term, highlighting the potential for short-term volatility before the next leg higher.

Solana faces resistance at $300 amid rally. Source: Momin/X

Analysts such as Momin project SOL reaching $500 this cycle, while Kolin views the figure as “conservative,” pointing to institutional inflows as a game-changer for Solana’s valuation.

Solana’s combination of increasing network activity, growing adoption, and ETF anticipation could propel the token toward new highs, keeping investors focused on its evolving narrative.

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